A number of people have flagged these up to me, some interesting Ukraine related agreements and treaty issues;
First, the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
This defines a set of rules by which nations must adhere in their use of the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles, especially for transiting warships.
Second, the Budapest Memorandum regarding the Ukraine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
In fact, there were three Memorandums, signed in December 1994.
One of the three Budapest Memorandums of 5 December 1994; was signed by the Presidents of Ukraine, Russian Federation and United States of America, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in connection with the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It provided national security assurances to Ukraine on behalf of those countries. Later, China and France joined its provisions in the form of individual statements. The Joint Declaration by the Russian Federation and the United States of America of 4 December 2009 confirmed the security guarantees for Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine that were set out in the Budapest Memorandums of 5 December 1994
On this second one, I think there has been some typically shrill reporting with selective quoting of the conditions but the text places no obligations on any party to intervene.It requires the signatories to respect the Ukraine’s sovereignty but does not provide a guarantee of response like article 5 of the NATO Charter.
The memorandum contained 6 conditions
1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.
6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.
There is also some debate whether it is binding under international law.
The full text of the Memorandum can be found here
Think Defence 
None of us can predict the future, but I believe it is not unlikely that we will witness a partition of Ukraine, with the Crimea and some parts of the south east of the country being balkanised or incorporated into Russia proper. I suspect there would be local insurgencies by the 45% Ukrainians and Tatars, and from that, UN Resolutions which may or may not be vetoed by Russia.
Britain, as one of the four signatories has a moral interest. Perhaps 2014 will not be the first year in a century when our forces are not deployed, as has recently been suggested. We do Balkan-style Peace Keeping / Enforcement pretty well.
The two Bosporus bridges have a clearance of 64 metres, per Wiki. Aside from the Montreux Treaty obligations, it’s going to be a bit buttock clenching for any CO taking his boat past them. Gravity bombs?
Looks like an Andrew-less operation. Again.
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Russian adherence to treaties has always been sketchy, they tend to regard them as a means to an end rather than an end in themselves. They also don’t wrap themselves up illegal restraints in the way the west, especially the UK, now does.
The whole, Russia is not a regional security concern argument has taken a bit of a beating this week- not that it should have needed any further underscoring after the Georgia affair or the internal shenanigans that are a textbook tyranny. Of course, this will have no impact on UK security policy as the British elites approach to Russia is driven entirely by self-interest: Russian oligarchs buying up London property keep MPs London property portfolios both valuable and profitable and the BP-Rosneft JV is crucial to most MP’s share portfolios. The British political class also has about as much interest in such concepts as democracy and liberty as Vladimir Putin does (witness the attempts to impose the Leveson anti-free speech legislation on print media in a country where state owned and regulated media outlets already dominate online and TV news media).
In summary, Ukraine will probably be dismembered in Russia’s favour (the precise status of the pro-Russian provinces will be irrelevant- whether they become Russian vassal states or part of Russia is neither here nor there), Vladimir Putin’s ruthlessness, cynicism and impressive understanding of western corruption and self-induced weakness will triumph yet again and there will be no impact on British security policy. Meanwhile the world will continue to spin on its axis.
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Derek, BP sold their stake in TNK a couple of years ago!
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TD,
I am afraid you have fallen for an establishment ruse. When BP extracted itself from the BP-TNK JV is did so by selling its 50% stake to Rosneft in return for a 20% stake in the latter. BP, and thus the British establishment, now have interests more closely intertwined with the Russian state that it did in the days of BP-TNK.
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This is a worrying development and one that should not be lost of SDSR 2015. Putin has changed many of the fundamental assumptions of SDSR 2010.
That being said I am certainly not prepared to through it all in with Ukraine. Much as with the conflict in Georgia is is not that black and white. I have little understanding for failed states like Ukraine and to a lesser extent Spain that have central governments hell bent on maintaining their boarders irrespective of what the people living in those areas think.
The UK has set a shining example with the Scottish Referendum of how governments should act when faced with such self determination issues.
The fact is that areas like the Crimea probably should be Russian and I think at the very least the people in those regions should be entitled to a referendum. Although I am sure the same argument could easily have been applied to the Sudetanland or Danzig.
Removing the Russian parts of Ukraine would probably make the country more governable as well.
That being said this in no way excuses the actions of Putin who has rapidly become the most dangerous threat faced certainly be Europe and this is no way for a world power to behave.
I think at the very least the west should consider suspending Russia from the G8 which is bound to hit his ego. No doubt their will be reprisals and Russia will cut of the gas but in the longer term that is no bad thing as a) it will hit Russia in the pocket very hard and b) it will stop western Europe relying on these supplies with all the political weight that gives Putin. Unfortunately too many countries in western Europe have been prepared to bend over and take it from Russia for a bit of cheap gas and I don’t suddenly see anyone in mainland Europe developing a spine over Ukraine.
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..”a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing..”
“I’m not going to have my soldiers be responsible for starting World War III.”
Though I give Tim Marshall his due I was wrong I was assuming that Putin would be a bit more nuanced this time. But Obama is out of his depth, the EU spineless, and China don’t care so..
After WW2 didn’t the UK take a good chunk of an Ukrainian SS division?
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Its all about the gas
That is why Europe wont do anything
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We have various Examples of how the world will react to Russia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#Russian_Federation_.281991.E2.80.93present.29
They have been involved in a fair number of wars since 1991.
The main one being the Russia–Georgia war where the world made a lot of noise but the did nothing.
We sound very hypercritical on the self determination front when we did not support the Chechen and Dagestan in there fight for independence from Russia .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts
It will al end with Crimea becoming part of Russia and Ukraine getting screwed by the international community.
Intern pushing them away from Europe and into Russia hands.
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@ TD
“Its all about the gas.That is why Europe wont do anything”
Agreed, Its one of the key problems of NATO that the vast majority of its members don’t really hold to it’s ideals when push comes to shove and look to the USA and to a lesser extent the UK to solve their problems at their own cost.
It’s not dissimilar to what is happening in the South China Sea right now where none of the nations what to potentially lose Chinas business but they don’t want to give up the Island either and they are hoping uncle Sam will do it all for them.
Let the Ukraine Poland and Germany handle this one its their issue. We should offer support but limited to diplomatic, economic support.
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I hope something like this has not influenced anyone’s decision into thinking that we need a coherent energy policy to reduce our reliance on external energy. After all this is just a one off, I don’t think the Russians would use energy as leverage in the daily dealings of their neighbours.
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Just be reading about how Russia and Gazprom seem to have bought much of the EU through gas and energy deals not to mention political contributions in German and Italy.
With friends like these who needs enemies.
Frack baby Frack
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“I don’t think the Russians would use energy as leverage in the daily dealings of their neighbours.”
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I don’t know the background to those conventions – why were we a party to them? Anyway, promising to respect Ukraine’s borders is not a promise to defend said borders against someone who doesn’t respect them. Ukraine is not Belgium.
As for Russia’s actions – at least how they’re initially being reported in the west – did we expect anything else? Frankly, what would we have done differently in their place? Didn’t we rush Typhoons and a T45 to Cyprus when it looked like we may take action against Syria – don’t recall us asking anyone’s permission first. The locals may not have appreciated being put in the firing line.
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How stupid and naive, do I feel right now? 😉
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@ Wise Ape
We were signatories to the treaty because it was part of the non proliferation treaty of which we are one of the five guarantors along with the other UNSC permanent members.
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Does anyone think this could lead to some uncomfortable questions for Dave Cameron following his unilateral disarmament program or will he still talk about punching above our weight.
Could this be cause to reverse some of the cuts. Should we be looking at giving 20% of the army the boot next year?
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@DN
Sometimes sarcasm is difficult on a blog 🙂
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@APATS,
You’re telling me! I think it’s got me into more trouble than I can remember 😉
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What does it say about Russian ‘Democracy’ that their Parliament just past an unanimous vote to deploy troops to Crimea. I can’t think of a proper parliament that could pass a unanimous vote on the existence of gravity.
Why maintain the façade
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Although Russia is less “civilised” and “discreet” about doing these kind of things I really think that they have a lot more justification for this than say us and the US gallivanting around the middle-east building freedom and wealth for all. The majority of citizens identify themselves are Russian, many others are half-Russian half-Ukrainian and fairly pro-Russian, and the democratically elected President Yanukovich got a majority of something like 70% there (yes he’s a massive crook but they still voted for him!).
To come up with a hopefully not too dissimilar parallel for the UK, imagine; for reasons clear to nobody, Harold Macmillan ceded Cumbria to Scotland in the 1950’s. Scotland had a referendum in the 1990’s and left the union, yet Cumbria remains very “English”. In 2010, Scotland elects a centre-right prime minister, with a more conciliatory tone towards the UK than the previous administration, Cumbria votes strongly for this man, who shall henceforth be known as “McMoneybags”. McMoneybags is overthrown/flees after a botched and bloody attempt to suppress protests by nationalists and radicals (later joined by many outraged ordinary folk) in Edinburgh. Scotland is in chaos as attempts are made to form a new government. Cumbria refuses to recognise the new leadership, declares temporary autonomy until a vote on the issue, and there are widespread pleas for the UK to assist/ensure security.
What would we do? Would we feel justified in sending in a military stabilisation force?
Would we feel that countries like France and Russia (closest analogies to the EU and US getting involved) should have any say in the matter?
Personally I feel that we would get very much involved, but what does everyone else think?
Also, from a purely military perspective, what are the biggest and most interesting vessels that could fit through the Bosporus if the treaty were to be ignored?
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The Memorandum is not a treaty in US legal sense since it was never put before the US Senate to get a 2/3 vote. So it has no force on US law and no obligation since a President signing such a memorandum has no legal force on future Presidents nor on the US as whole.
The NPT is a legal treaty but not this memorandum.
Don’t know how British law treats it.
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I think the key question is where will Russia stop – will they just annex the Crimea or will they put Yanukovych back in power (which some of their mood music suggests this is what they plan to do). If it they go with the later option then IMO we have a problem, as they will turn the Ukraine into a new Chechnya, and we will have a refugee crisis on our hands (given Ukraine’s proximity to EU member states).
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Hopefully well before the novelty rock emporium.
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Bang on the nail @Tubby…if the Ukraine divides more or less peacefully into a more or less happy Westward facing area and a more or less happy Russian facing area, everybody will find a way to live with it…but it gets seriously tricky if there is fighting in the specifically pro-Polish component and the Poles themselves get drawn in…bearing in mind the fact that Poland are the NATO front line…
Who would have thought the twenty first century would start with Panzer Divisions on the Dnieper…really looking forward to Sven’s take on this…
A blackly humorous Gloomy
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@ FOTW
Well said. I think “we” sometimes struggle with the idea, let alone the practise, of robust action. Jaw, jaw not war, war is “our” MO now. The idea of proactively using soldiers isn’t something we are comfortable.
Apparently the Irish had plans to go into Ulster at the start of the Troubles.
The Russians have just as much right to do this as say the US going into Panama or invading Grenada
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I thought the SDSR told us all those tanks, infantry brigades and fighters were so Cold War and the future was more agile thingies or somethings
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I think this situation is a gd illustration of why you need to be careful exactly who you make treaties and obligations with, the ever East ward expansion of NATO and the EU being classic examples at some point you may need to make gd on your promises.
I was listening on the tv to a ww1 historian the other day and he said that world wars are started not by some big event between major nations but by the ability of small nations to manipulate bigger nations to start a chain of events that cannot be stopped.
“Half a league, half a league, Half a league onward, All in the valley of Death, Rode the six hundred”. Cool heads must prevail call the Russians to get UN approval for there actions as they did with us in Syria.
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@TD
“I thought the SDSR told us all those tanks, infantry brigades and fighters were so Cold War and the future was more agile thingies or somethings”
Some of them are for us, the current government is unpopular enough without trying to tell the Public that they are going to send troops to another failing state to try and prevent it splitting naturally along ethnic lines and according to the wishes of the population of half of that country and without a UN resolution.
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This place is going to get quiet when we’re called up or packed off to the Crimea. We’re fucked if we get stuck into this.
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No chance of us putting boots on the ground, even if the SDSR had scrapped the RN and RAF. There is just no upside for us.
Get some international monitors on the ground and start equipping and training the Ukrainian armed forces. Next start imposing sanctions on Russia.
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It will be interesting to see how Ukraine’s armed forces react, I am unsure about their Army and Navy, but their Air Force is rather well equipped – importantly – trained.
That has been my main thought when I have seen such developments, their armed forces kept out of the protests – paramilitary and thugs excluded – but what about this? Rather quiet (media wise anyway).
Georgia showed to us how much a ‘paper tiger’ the Russian forces can be, like Georgia, this has rather quickly popped up again, I wonder what state of readiness are Russian forces this time, and if they applied the lessons of ’08 – presumably they have tier 1 (‘A class’) units in Crimea given its strategic importance, and the fact that the Ukrainians are a damned sight more well armed than Georgia was.
@ GNB
“Bang on the nail @Tubby…if the Ukraine divides more or less peacefully into a more or less happy Westward facing area and a more or less happy Russian facing area, everybody will find a way to live with it…”
The same was said with Korea… and Vietnam 😉 Obviously, a modern partition is very different matter… but well, there are people living there who wouldn’t want that to happen. Interesting to see how this develops, and how we react to it – now and in 2015.
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As far as I can tell from the news (not always reliable I know) the local population of the Crimea are not exactly demonstrating at the presence of Russian troops, as stated by some earlier as long as they refrain from going further I see no reason for us to get involved. And even then I think the Poles and Baltic states, coupled with the Slovaks would not mind too much going at it a for bit with the Russians, so still no real reason for us to get our boots muddy.
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In the still hypothetical position of there being a armed confrontation or standoff between Ukraine and Russia (or initially, their proxy gangs), which nations might volunteer peacekeepers? It’s difficult to see any NATO members doing so: too escalatory. After that, the question is open, but you’d have to wonder how effective any peace keeping force would be.
I’m surprised at the lack of reaction by the Ukrainians: although no doubt there is massive western pressure on them behind the scenes to not make things worse, at this rate they will simply abandon the Crimea and South Eastern parts of their country to a de facto Russian takeover. It is those parts of the country that powers their economy, and they need money. The western parts are predominantly agricultural.
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What is the Polish angle on this and the Baltic states?
Sven, what is the general press reaction in Germany
Always interested how these things are perceived by nations closer (in both a geographic and strategic sense) than us
Also, wonder what the Ukraine Navy is doing
Are any on anti piracy ops
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_Armed_Forces
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Ukraine
When you are talking about the forces in this case I guess it comes down to motivation
Only some of the Georgians army was willing to fight the rest ran same with there air force and navy.
So it will come down to weather the Ukrainian forces will fight or run?
They are also having command and control problems with the forces in the Crimean not knowing who to take orders off. There MOD or the local parliament.
There is also the risk that some of the army would fight on the Russian side. Plus a lot of the Russian army is made up of Russian speaking Ukrainians (like southern Irish in the British army) .
The problems of a war in the Ukraine it is going to be massively complicated.
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I think this a watershed moment and we need to show putin that he can not do what he wants when he wants i am not talking a stright head to head but lets take a page out putins book and put the presure back on him and at the same time lets organise a exercise with our friends the poles may by a squdron of typhoons and tonks because if we don’t this could go down hill for us and the rest of europe very quickly
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Kiev trying not to make the same mistakes as Georgia:
“President Turchynov appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to “stop provocations and start negotiations”.
He said Russia was behaving as it did before sending troops into Georgia in 2008 over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have large ethnic Russian populations.”
“They are implementing the scenario like the one carried out in Abkhazia, when after provoking a conflict, they started an annexation of the territory,” President Turchynov said.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26392958
“Russia has an overall military force of about 845,000 troops against Ukraine’s 130,000. Russia’s military spending is also vastly greater than Ukraine’s, $40.7bn last year compared with $1.4bn. But the Ukrainian forces are still formidable, better-trained, engaged over the last decade in international peacekeeping missions and established close contacts with western counterparts.”
“But a Russian takeover of the Crimea could turn out to be disastrous in the long run. The Kremlin would be underestimating the impact of the sizeable population of Tartars who were forcibly deported from the Crimea by Stalin in 1944 and not allowed to return until the beginning of Perestroika in the 1980s.
Sutyagin, who is at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said: “The Tartars are very anti-Russian. They will do anything not to be under the Russians. They will be determined to fight for Ukraine. It would be a second Chechnya. There are a lot of mountains in Crimea, just as in Chechnya”.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-military-russia-crimea
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According to the BBC Crimea is made up of 58.5% ethnic Russians and only 24.5% ethnic Ukrainians. The new Ukrainian parliament has voted to outlaw the Russian language. The provocation is not all one way.
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@Wise Ape
I think we are pretty much all in agreement that Ukraine is at a crossroads and that given the ethnic demographics and its future Political direction being so polarising that it may be for the best for it to “split” in some way. If Russia had pointed this out and called for some sort of referendum we would have probably all been applauding.
However instead of this they have siezed air bases and local Government buildings, flown in extra troops and passed a parliamentary motion to deploy troop for operations throughout Ukraine until the “normalisation of the political situation in the country”. Now that could be read in a variety of ways but at least one of them is quite similar.
Now I do not believe we should get involved as long as the situation remains in the Crimea and the east of the country and does not spread or escalate to outright conflict.
However if Putin decides to take the entire country by force then we must be prepared to give him a bloody nose and show him where the line is.
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Are any on anti piracy ops
Fuck me that looks like the conversation has dried up!
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Perhaps Ukraine has suddenly come on the market for some tranche one Typhoons.
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@APATS – I do hope you’re not relying on Obama to uphold that line, especially if it is a red one. I wonder if Cameron is thinking – “I wish we hadn’t slashed our armed forces all across NATO.” Still, not to worry, that Franco-German rapid reaction force is probably swinging into action as we type.
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APATS,
I don’t imagine Putin wants the whole country: that puts Russia right up against emerging Eastern European countries / the EU. But equally taking Crimea alone gives him supply problems if Ukraine seals the neck of Crimea. So I think a partial operation, taking a land section from Russia through SE Ukraine (which are also pro-Russian, and where the heavy industry is).
But that’s bloody bad news for everyone, if that’s what he wants. Hope I’m wrong. 😦
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There is a bridge that goes from Crimean peninsula across to Russia. And I have heard of a technology called shipping……..
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch
Sorry, not a bridge, just a very narrow channel with good road links.
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Dave, perhaps the one on the left was asking about aircraft carriers and valentines day 🙂
Wiseape, the EU reaction corps will spend the next 10 months deciding on the mission name and arguing where to wear the arm patch
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TD they were probably reading RT’s comments on the ‘great carrier conundrum’ thread and trying to formulate an answer 😉
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait_Bridge
There is a bridge planned. There is current connection is by ferry between Port Kavkaz and Port Krym.
If they tried to blockade the Crimea the Russians would be quite capable of launching an air and sea bridge.
They have lots of cargo aircraft and lots of transport ship.
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X, yes I saw that 2 mile channel. But it’s a bit single point of failure, and IMO not adequate or sustainable to keep a whole Peninsula fed/supplied.
Russia, for all of its’ faults, does not do penny packet interventions. In my opinion, if it really wants Crimea, it has to hold Eastern Ukraine as well. There are many ethnic Russians there as well, probably more than in Crimea although possibly not the concentration.
The current situation (Russia holding the Crimea, but not the land routes to Russia proper) is IMO unsustainable in the long run. Either Russia goes the full push to take Eastern Ukraine and hold it, or it backs down and loses Crimea forever.
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@RT
So a 2 mile wide channel with good communications on the Russian side and the deep water Ports in the Crimea itself which can link into communications links like the Danube are not sufficient to feed and supply the Peninsula. Damn let us evacuate Islands the world over 🙂
Of course that also assumes that the rest Of the Ukraine imposes a land blockade.
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I’d like to believe that the one good thing likely to come out of this is that the growing tendency across the West to conduct foreign and defence policy on the basis of wishful thinking of every possible variety might finally be reversed….
I’d like to, but I don’t…being Gloomy
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@ RT
I think its doable. The Russians’ hold all the cards.
I bet there are civil engineers and architects dusting off plans as we speak.
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1. A referendum first establishes that the a majority appproves the possibility of of partiition in principle.
2. Predicated on the success of the first; that a second referendum to is held to identify parts of the countries that wish to secede.
the principle of free association; even more importance in matters of governance, where you must assent to be bound by the decisions that others will make in your name.
if this assent cannot be granted, then a more viable polity (or group of polities) should be sought.
Ukraine has to ask itselfwhether wrecking Russia’s Mediterranean access is really worth it…
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I’m leaning towards the not getting involved camp.
I’m very much hoping we do not need to get involved.
But, if tshtf, does anyone have an assessment of current Russian military capabilites versus what NATO is likely to be able to put up against them?
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APATS / x,
I’ve no doubt that a bridge is doable. It’s already been done there after the second war, but it got knocked over by ice floes. But is it doable in time, and sustainable if others try to knock it down?
I really think the bigger picture is Eastern Ukraine. More Russians there than the Crimea, where the industry is. And the Beeb now reporting that Eastern Ukraine was the new topic in a 90 minute call between Putin and some militarily impotent man in Washington.
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“Ukraine has to ask itself whether wrecking Russia’s Mediterranean access is really worth it”
There is broader deeper political question here. How much are Germany’s (lets not use the term EU let’s be real about it) and the US’s interests diverging, and how much are Germany’s and Russia’s interests converging? Ukrainians campaigning to join the West, sorry Germany’s EU, might end up in a decade’s or two’s time in a Europe whose CoG has moved east. Russia and Germany have things each other need in a way; France has nothing that Germany needs. As I often say here about the UK in the EU, we gave up worldwide markets and resources to join a club which had no resources and only competing industries. Germany in a way faces similar choice now. The Russians offer, um, what’s the word now, Lebensraum.
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@ RT
Who is going to knock the bridge out? The Ukrainians? As for the weather and nature Russian civil engineering doesn’t really care about such trivial matters………
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The Russians are use to operating areas that are isolated. Kaliningrad Oblast is only accessible by air with road and rail having to pass through ether Poland and Lithuania. so it is possible with no land link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast
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@DavidNiven and TD
“Fuck me that looks like the conversation has dried up!”
“Dave, perhaps the one on the left was asking about aircraft carriers and valentines day.” 🙂
“TD they were probably reading RT’s comments on the ‘great carrier conundrum’ thread and trying to formulate an answer.” 😉
No different to the expressions of any other senior officers being given their umpteenth briefing of the day on the same subject, i.e. feigning intense interest while actually wondering whether the helo would be on time for the transfer back to Djibouti so they could catch up with their paperwork and turn in before zero one dubs ready for an early return to their respective HQs the following morning. 🙂
The photo shows Gen Knud Bartels Danish Army (Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (CMC)) and Vice Adm Peter Hudson RN (Commander Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM)). Together with Col Gen Volodymyr Zamara (Chief of General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) and Vice Adm Yuri Ilyin (Commander of the Ukrainian Navy), they headed a joint delegation visiting Task Force 508 on Operation OCEAN SHIELD in the Gulf of Aden last October. They were on board the Norwegian frigate HNOMS Fridtjof Nansen having already visited the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy.
All smiles here:
Main articles here:
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_104597.htm
http://www.mc.nato.int/PressReleases/Pages/NATO%20Chairman%20of%20Military%20Committee%20and%20MARCOM%20Commander%20Visit%20Operation%20OCEAN%20SHIELD.aspx
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@ TD “Its all about the gas. That is why Europe wont do anything.”
Step right up! Step right up! Ladies and gentlemen have we got a deal for you.
All the gas and oil you’ll need for the next few decades at special mates rates.
Plus as a special once off bonus – reclaim the London property market from the Reds and the Arabs!
But hurry this offer won’t last. Be quick before China snaps it all up.
http://www.nwsalng.com.au/North-West-Shelf-Project/Overview
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-24/major-oil-discovery-in-outback-sa/4481982
Our PM is online now waiting for your call. 😉
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@Oscar Zulu,
Imperial Preference, mate. Start shipping at once 😉
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Tongue out of cheek now.
Agree that the ‘best’ (read most optimistic) solution is for a simple partition of Crimea through a quasi-democratic process like a referendum. That would satisfy the moral and legal/treaty conundrum and let Western leaders sleep fitfully at night.
But it also ignores the complex ethnic mix in the Ukraine and so for that reason an unlikely outcome. Ukraine isn’t so much a house of cards as a shuffled deck and unpacking the red suites from the black isn’t an easy exercise with the Tartars on the peninsula and the ethnic Russians in the east.
The US options (quite apart from the will to do anything and the risk that it brings of a larger scale US-Russian conflict) are limited by the logistics and access to the place by the US Navy and Marines – normally the US first responder of choice.
If there were to be boots on the ground, even if only as a peacekeeping force, it would be better if they were there on the behalf of the EU rather than NATO. An EU response could be seen as more neutral than a NATO response which would just ratchet up the tension. How’s that rapid reaction force going?
Time for the UN envoys to start earning their keep. While the Russians will no doubt veto any resolution more jaw jaw is definitely preferable to the alternative.
Australia has a more direct interest in the outcome of the Ukraine crisis as we are currently sitting on the UN Security Council and since we are hosting the G20 meeting here in Brisbane in November this year. Could be a very frosty meeting.
Not looking forward to the prospect of Ukrainians (of either persuasion) joining the the rent-a-crowd nut-job anarchists who follow the G20 around the globe and the usual suspect Islamic terrorists taking to the streets of Brisbane to make their point. I might just stay home and watch it on the telly.
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As I said befor I don’t want to get involved in WW3 over Crimea. Ukraine is no small country and if it wants to keep it then let it fight for it. at the same time though we must see sure Russia for its actions? I think Putin has bitten off more than he can chew with this one although he probably does not realise it yet.
For starters their is the next G8 meeting at Sochi. simply move the venue and revert back to the G7. that will hit Putin personally.
if Latvia and the other Baltic States are so worried then let them do something about it. reverse the gas politics on Putin. Russian gas accounts for around 30% of EU imports. Get the LNG plants working a full pelt and and push every European gas field up to its maximum production. Relight all the coal plants and restart the nuclear reactors. some countries like Latvia and Finalnd that rely on 100% of Russian gas may not be able to stop taking it but if Germany and Italy stopped buying Russian gas it will hit the kremlin in the pocket.
since Russia islaready on the brink of fiancial meltdown a big knock like this will curtail Msocows power. It will cost the EU a bit but it’s probably a cost we Can afford to deal with a major threat on our boarder.
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Putin’s actions with Georgia and now Ukraine leave me with a deja vu feeling with regards to the 1930s. Didn’t Hitler use the pretense of protecting German speakers to move into the Sudetenland and encourage likeminded elements in other countries to invite the Wehrmacht in to Austria. For all his anti-fascist rantings Putin seems to have read Hitler’s foreign policy playbook and tweeked it for the 21st century.
He got away with it in Georgia and lack of will and action by the west means he will get away with in Ukraine, Munich II anyone? Where will he stop, the Baltic states have large Russian populations who are not treated as well as they should be. Could we actually stop him moving in to protect them?
Europe would probably do nothing meaningful as most countries are dependant on Russian Natural Gas imports. NATO could not act fast enough as the Russian could occupy all three Baltic states in between 24 and 48 hrs, after a rapid build up in the form of exercises. NATO would not respond in kind as it would still be discussing matters when the tanks cross the border. The nearest member Poland would have to take a defensive and even passive stance and I cannot see German units moving east as that would be petrol on the fire to say the least.
The UN is becoming more and more redundant, reverting back to its Cold War status, yet many nations still look upon it with rose tinted glasses as they get to punch above there weight or at least feel like they do but nothing will actually get done in Eastern Europe of Asia as China and Russia have the veto. Without the blessing of the UN no western power is going to act on the world stage again, it is political suicide and we cannot go up against either Russia or China as that would be economical suicide of any European nation.
Yes we won the Cold War but we have lost the peace, The Russian Empire is coming back, this time far smarter than in the old days.
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“How much are Germany’s (lets not use the term EU let’s be real about it) and the US’s interests diverging, and how much are Germany’s and Russia’s interests converging? Ukrainians campaigning to join the West, sorry Germany’s EU, might end up in a decade’s or two’s time in a Europe whose CoG has moved east.”
Agreed, which is no doubt why Ukraine appealed to Britain and the US, rather than a most-military nation with a co-dependence on the enemy. Not that we can do much.
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quote from todays liam halligan articule in the telegraph finance pages:
” Also bear in mind that Germany’s biggest single-country trading partner is Russia, an economy in line to be hit if fears about emerging markets spread or current geopolitical tensions turn nasty. Certainly, Germany seems likely to suffer more than other large Western economies should this Ukrainian turmoil escalate, given its considerable business interests across the region. Berlin will also be in line to fund the lion’s share of any related European Union assistance.
On the other hand, Germany now has “Nordstream”, its direct link to Russian gas, while the rest of Western Europe relies on trans-Ukrainian pipelines to import Russian gas. So maybe Germany is better protected than the UK if events in Ukraine turn really nasty? As I said, Anglo-German comparisons are complex. “
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JDBTx,
My understanding is that between Norwegian, Qatari and North Sea gas, the UK is not particularly exposed to Russian gas. As we exit the winter and domestic demand reduces, we should be OK.
A question for maritime strategists. The Russian Black Sea fleet can only access the Mediterranean via the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, both controlled by a NATO country. Between them, that’s about 70 kms of narrow channels. If they want to go beyond the Med, they have to go past Gibraltar or through Suez to enter a proper ocean.
So how useful is their Black Sea fleet? They have a huge amount of emotional investment in it, but in practical terms, is it not a bit bottled up in a small sea where it can’t do very much?
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@ Lord Jim: The parallels are limited in my mind, RE
“Putin’s actions with Georgia and now Ukraine”
– let’s remember who broke the cease fire in Ossetia ( and who was inciting that party)
– the Russians probably have little sympathy for the Ossetians (Stalin’s birth place, what a gift to Russia proper), but you can’t try to bully a superpower on its own borders
@RT
Black Sea Fleet and the one in the Baltic have little significance, but the (surface) ship building just happens to be in those two places. The ones that have strategic significance are the Northern Fleet and the Far East one.
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my point about russian access to sebastopol, and thus the med, is not about how useful we consider it to be, but how important russia considers it to be.
high stakes for ukraine to bet against russian keenness to keep hold of this ‘vital’ naval facility…
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With all these calls for sanctions (we’ve just relaxed sanctions on iran and now want to impose them on russia???) and G8 expulsions never mind the nonsense of military support, provocations that could cause at least the threat of instability in EU energy supplies, and rising prices -anyone looking forward to that- has anyone stopped to think of the impact in the markets? ANY instability now is the last thing an extremely weak economic recovery needs. We’re not talking about instability amongst the jib jabs either but on the EU BORDER. very silly. And for what? An economic basket case. That will be even more of a burden at the end of any settlement when the Russians end up with both the major black sea ports and the eastern industry.
The EU and US have been playing some silly games and let a rather nasty bunch of fascists loose. I think the idea of a little embarrassing disruption during Sochi for Putin has turned into something that now have to handle but don’t want to.
Ukraine needs Billions now and for years to come. Who wants to give it to them?
I don’t think we have any interest in “plucky” Ukraine, whatsoever.
It does bring the idea that the EU invariably brings everlasting European stability into closer focus. And the reduction in heavy armour and land forces likewise.
The idea that there are no circumstances on the fringes of a destabilised Europe in the next 40
years that might require a heavy conventional land presence to bring some stabilisation to is naive. Its a historical cycle and not an aberration. The aberration is the peace (through MAD) that we’ve had for 50 years. Wars are often caused by economic competition. The EU is a fundamentally instable, unbalanced economic entity. No certainties there.
It highlight the pygmies we are currently saddled with at the political level, and FFS it shows the vacuity of EU foreign and defence policy. Do we need another romania and bulgaria in the mix? Next stop Moldova even? Its a bloody menance.
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So how useful is their Black Sea fleet?
As useful as our recent predication to ASW GIUk gap etc?
At the least it helps secure their southern flank, that straight is hard for NATO forces to enter unopposed as it is for the Russians to exit it.
Black sea borders a number of nations who may need to be influenced
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Speaking of the demise of land forces and thinking about possible peacekeeping roles etc, we have also heard that the heavy UOR vehicles for Afghan should now be sold, scrapped etc.
Never really understood that myself. There must be some utility in not writing that expense off completely as it delivers a lot of force protection.not all environments are urban. Force protection for peacekeepers would be the main concern I would hope and so I’d hope that these heavy force protextion vehicles -rationalised or not, some cannibalised or not, are retained in storage.
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@RT
“How useful is their Black Sea Fleet”
Well as it consists of 1 Cruiser, 3 Escorts, 1 SSK and a variety of Landing Ships, Missile Boats and Corvettes it is unlikely to want to break out and challenge the Turks, Greek, Italian, French and 6th Fleet.
It could however protect Russian SLOCS to Crimea and in a defensive posture prove difficult to pin and eliminate.
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I think if Russia are given a free hand to dissect Ukraine we are in a very different and more dangerous world. I’m sure the US understand this, as the only grown-up in the western camp. The EU will want to appease Russia if they can get away with it, because right now they have enough problems of their own, and any problems with gas supply and Russian investment in Europe will compound that. But Russia is also dependent upon these revenues, and places to offshore their spoils.
We know Putin runs a basically old style Mussolini-type fascist government, a legacy of the KGB + new capitalists. He wants Russia’s dignity and superpower status back, but he only understands this in strong-man terms, like all dictators. In that sense he is no different from Mugabe. The Ukraine, having been Russian for most of modern history, is probably a red line (like Georgia), as its ‘back yard’. But Putin’s recent interest in demonstrating in both the US and UK ‘back yards’ – the Firth of Forth carrier incident and the bombers to Venezuela – suggests that he wants to begin a process of being taken seriously not as a partner but as a capable adversary.
The answer is probably new elections and a referendum for the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. But to get these will require some deft footwork by the US and the EU. China will support Russia for two reasons – Tibet (and the recent Obama-Lama-Ding-Dong) and their own claims in the south China sea. Any diversion of US strategic interest back towards Europe will open up a route for China to press those claims more purposefully.
This is dangerous, and Europe in particular is very unprepared to stand up to Russia, with the US having shifted is centre of gravity towards the Pacific and gone through its own military draw-down. As Korea signaled the end of post-WW2 disarmament, one might see this crisis as a test of whether the post-2008/Afghanistan cutbacks in western military force will be reversed. They should be. On a more positive note both the European and Us economies are in better shape, and apart from gas have little dependence upon trade with Russia (apart from Cyprus). Fracking in the US has freed up middle east oil and gas, and hopefully this little spat will make shale gas a more urgent priority in Europe (although geological conditions make it less of a winner here than in the US). A lot of new African oil and gas is also coming online, so we can survive without Russia, even if it will be temporarily painful.
The worst outcomes are either 1). A Russian coup de main, which will lead to a new cold war, and possibly embolden Russia to have another pop at Georgia 2) a civil war, which will lead to another Bosnia on steroids and potentially destabilize Eastern Europe, 3) any attempt by China to take advantage of US preoccupation in Ukraine.
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RL – I think all of the UOR MRAPS (Mastiff family, Husky, Foxhound) have been taken into core + Jackal family and Warthog. Snatch landrovers, Pinzgauer Vector, Bulldog and Panther are most likely to be disposed of, as none proved up to the task.
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One sobering point is what would be the situation is their were still nuclear weapons in Ukraine…
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I doubt they would have had the wherewithal to maintain them, given the resources and priorities.
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Thanks APATS, a voice of some knowledge on maritime matters.
Would it be grossly mischaracterising to think of the Black Sea Fleet as a paper tiger south of the Dardanelles, but noteworthy north of the Bosporus in their own back yard of the Black Sea?
I begin to wonder whether the emotional investment of Russia in the Fleet is not misplaced from a Western geo-strategic point if view, but then the Russian mindset is different to the West. Perhaps we should mentally walk a mile in Russia’s shoes before commenting too much.
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Ukraine could end up being another East/West Germany.
Russia want it Russian
Europe want it European
The only way I can see out of this is for the Ukraine people to realise they are in the best position if they actually remain 50:50 EuroRusky. It would make Ukraine a trade hub and admittedly a bit of a hit spot, but they will get the best of both worlds.
This means inserting a third potential leader and communicating the idea to the masses.
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RT,
Russia own the Black Sea. Their fleet appears designed to blockade Istanbul but allow free use of their amphibious capabilities.
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How is the Pacific Pivot going for you America? Or once again was it an example of wishful thinking and complete bollocks influencing thinking? Hmmmm. The Middle East and the southern stretch of the world island – it’s where the action is always going to be at.
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Perhaps if anything this should wake up our politicians to the reality of the spectre of instability in Eastern Europe and the unpredictability of Russia. Not that this will result in an UK military involvement but did any of the defence reviews flag up a new Crimean War? A some good points by RL and Jamesf. In terms of defence in my mind this just reinforces my view that expeditionary warfare is important but we neglect home defence at our peril – of our land our shores and near Europe. No peace dividend from Afghan please, let’s reinvest and fill the holes in our defence.
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What I want is for someone to point out to me why this is any different from Just Cause or Grenada or similar?
This is the backyard of Russia. Russia is intervening in an area with a majority Russian sympathetic population. There’s an opportunity to score some diplomatic and political points here and turn the economic screws on Russia but lets not all get over excited about what is really none of our business.
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@ Phil – provided it remains a smoldouring pre-conflict that eventually resolves with Crimea becoming largely autonomous under Russian influence, this will be but a blip on Americas 21st century.
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Yeah right. There’s been nothing but crisis and war involving the US everywhere in the world but the Pacific in the first 14 years of this momentous ‘pivot’. The US air sea battle mental masturbators can keep dreaming and wishing China as the enemy but old reliable foes still keep our statesmen up at night and our defence planners planning.
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@RT
They have talked about investing in the Black Sea Fleet and adding vessels but it will never be a threat in the Med due to the sheer amount of combat power the NATO Navies can muster. The Greeks and Turks between them can muster over 20 SSKs and these boats are active. They have approximately 30 Frigates and Corvettes between them and about 40 sub 1000 tonne missile boats armed with either Penguin, Exocet or Harpoon, these train to play hide and seak(fire) amongst the Islands. Forcing a passage South against this sort of force is simply a no go.
Even then once you get into the Med you have to confront US 6th Fleet and the combined Franco Italian Med Fleets centered on 1 or 2 CBGs as well as SSNs.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405635
“Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia’s build-up of its forces in Crimea.
Prime Minster Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the country was “on the brink of disaster”.
US President Barack Obama has called Russian troop deployments a “violation of Ukrainian sovereignty”.
Nato is conducting emergency talks on the crisis. Its secretary-general has said Russia’s actions “threatened peace and security in Europe”.
Several other measures were announced on Sunday by national security officials:
The armed forces would be put on “full combat readiness”.
Reserves to be mobilised and trained
Ukraine’s foreign minister will seek the help of US and UK leaders in guaranteeing its security
Emergency headquarters to be set up
Increased security at key sites, including nuclear plants.
Airspace closed to all non-civilian aircraft.”
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Russia resetting her borders was bound to happen. That there hasn’t been much more disturbance along the fault line over the last two decades is remarkable. You had to live through the collapse of the East to understand its sheer rapidity.
Too much talk of Russia giving the Crimea to the Ukraine. The USSR reorganised itself internally; no different than the 1974 LG Act here! Um. I think we forget or we aren’t just aware how diverse in terms of population the land mass is that extends from the Belarus Ukraine borders to the Pacific; even during the Soviet era.
From somebody who lived under the shadow of the bomb all this talk of WW3 is amusing. The balloon didn’t go up in 1956 or 1968 why should it now?
It isn’t the Americans fight. And I think those at the centre of the EU project should stop offering states more of the same to other peoples that which has brought nothing but despair to the poor peripheral states of today’s EU. Not sure what the western Ukrainians think they want to join. Odd that their great (great) grandparents once fought against a western hegemony .
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Interesting to note that Canada the USA, UK and France have all threatened to Boycott the G8 Summit yet the Hause Frau has remained silent for the past couple of days. Its almost like their is this blank space in Europe between the French and Polish Boarders that only seems to exist when someone talks about spending money for instance on defence.
One might have thought a Women who grew up under the Stasi would have a little more in the way of principals when it came to Russian aggression. She certainly had no quarms in pipping up about NSA operations. That other great Axis member Italy seems to be fairly quiet as well but I can’t remember if they actually have a Primeminister this week or not.
Its hard to believe some times we are in a union with these Jokers.
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Does anyone else think the best result all round would be if Ukraine gave the Russians a good spanking. The Russians did not do to well against Georgia what chance do Ukraine have? Is their anything we could send them to help i.e. Javalin
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Could this affect the pull out from Afghanistan? As far as I know much of the kit was due to come back by rail through Russia.
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Just heard a classic statement from that buffoon john Kerry. ” you just don’t go around invading another country on a false pretext to assert your national interest”
Iraq 2???
Do we need to make a list?
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@x: I’m not sure I agree about resetting borders, but something needs to happen to resolve the underlying issues in Ukraine. No Ukrainian government which lacks support and even legitimacy in half of the country – whether that be the west or the east – is going to have a very stable future. Nearly twenty five years gone and no progress on that front.
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@AM
Agree that the Political situation needs to be looked at, another classic example of creating states on a map with no regard to ethnic split and very little to geography. However the current Russian actions are definitely not what is required.
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APATS, I’d agree with that statement (Israel, NI, Yugoslavia, many others). Ukraine is a creation of Kruschev. Prior to 1954, it did not include Crimea.
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You could claim that, as he did have special sympathies, RE
“Khrushchev was born in the Russian village of Kalinovka in 1894, close to the present-day border between Russia and Ukraine”.
I’d rather say that Ukraine (with its internal division) is the creation of the evil Huns (no, not the ones re-invented in propaganda). That is how the emerging Russia centered on Moscow after the sack of Kiev; and that is why the East and the West are so different. The latter not having had to endure the yoke for hundreds of years, and then feel “rescued” by the Russians finally pushing the occupiers away (while doing the same for themselves).
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good one from lindley French:
http://lindleyfrench.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/ukrain-europe-whole-and-broke.html
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@ Martin
“what chance do Ukraine have?”
I mused the thought earlier in this thread, the Ukrainians are certainly different than Georgia. However, you get this;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26407409
Their Naval HQ is already occupied.
Its like the Argentinians occupying Northwood in 82… at least the Ukrainian Navy is out of play, as x said earlier, Russia holds a lot more than we/the media seem to let on.
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ACC,
I saw once a computer animation of the borders of European (from France to the Urals) countries moving back and forth from about 1300 until 1990 and the end of the Cold War. Really good and instructive: if I can recall where on the internet it is I’ll link to it.
I imagine if you overlay on top of that the forced population movements of the last two centuries, each movement taking with it in folk memory tales of starvation, pogroms, ghettoes and concentration or work camps, it all becomes a mush. There’s hardly a square metre between Bavaria and Thessalonika, or Pomerania and the Crimea that have not had at least two, or sometimes three rulers in the last 150 years.
Still in living memory, I know a retired German General, now into his 70s. His father was the eldest son of a Prussian landed family, and served in the Wehrmacht before and during the war. His son was born on the family estate outside Danzig during the war. His father was captured in the East later, and kept as a prisoner by Stalin until 1954, and returned to Eastern Germany as a broken man. He travelled to the old estate in new Poland, but it had been taken over. He managed to get word to his wife that he was alive, but she was not allowed to travel from west Germany to the easy. After a couple of decades, his son managed to travel to Berlin to meet his father for the first time, but there was no connection.
For us in England, Middle Europe is almost incomprehensible. Everyone has a dog in the fight, an injustice to be righted. We should tread carefully.
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Ref, what chance does the Ukraine have. Would the Russians be prepared to accept the sort of losses they would suffer if the Ukranians stood their ground. We are not talking Georgia here, we are looking at about 1,000 MBTs of various classes supported by numerous AFVs and Artillery pieces. About 100 Fighters and some attack birds. No doubt the eventual outcome but it would certainly be painful.
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From the bbc it looks like the navy or at least its head has gone over to the Russians
The newly appointed head of Ukraine’s navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.
Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.
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@Mark
Saw that, sack the selection committee, though Amnesty International question defections at gun point.
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Apas
God knows what’s going on down there at the minute but it does seem a record quick turnaround less that 24hrs in the top job to defect.
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APATS,
That’s the whole idea of defence spending: have enough to make the likely adversaries to think twice.
Now… going back to the ethnic/cultural/political/language divisions within Ukraine: they have a pure contract model rather han conscription in use. That makes it less likely that the units will split along any geographical divide.
– but what is the mix within? Will there be a shared purpose?
Well, not making any forecasts here. Just remembering that when Georgia was playing brinkmanship, and executed their perceived version of blitz krieg, by the time they found out they had miscalculated they never got any of their reserve units into play (and those who were fed in as troop replenishments were the ones who ran).
Russia’s ground forces fall into the readiness brigades and old divisional structures that are used for conscript training (they were planning to go all pro, but found out they could not afford it). I am sure that only readiness units will be involved, whereas the numbers on the Ukraine side are a mish-mash, so whether the quantity is something to be reckoned with goes back to a “shared purpose”… or not.
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Russia is playing in her backyard. The same backyard she has played in for 250 years. We’re best well out of it and letting them crack on all the while acting suitably outraged, hint at a bit of sabre wriggling and moan to the UN – exactly what Russia has done for the last 20 years as we’ve gone gallivanting about the globe putting right what once went wrong.
We mustn’t waste a good crisis though – we need to remember why going wholly “medium” and “light” is not an option.
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How many native Russian speakers are in the Baltic states?
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What we really need to sort this out are some carriers. Chuffing big ones, with jets embarked. That’ll be money well spent.
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Looking at the navy, all forces in Sevastopol have surrendered and lay down there arms.
The Southern Naval Base at Donuzlav Bay the Navy have surrendered but the marines at Feodosiya have refused to so are being blockaded within there base.
The Ukrainian submarine Zaporizhzhia (U-01) is at sea. The Russians have despatched 3 frigate to go and find her.
She is a very old Foxtrot class so that should not be much of a fight.
It comes down to how much of the fleet was in Odessa at the time of the invasion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy
It is a relatively small fleet any way so they didn’t stand much chance.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26410431
wtf is going on… could we see a fracturing of the armed forces as well?
Crazy. And interesting.
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@ Angus M
You don’t agree about resetting borders? What do you think is happening now?
@ RT re carriers
Come now. What we really need is a brigade of infantry to face the Ruskies. How they would manage against professional troops after a decade or so fighting amateurs I don’t know.
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The China Connexion – an extract from South China Morning Post Sun 2 March:
“Ukraine has played a key role in engine production, and the maintenance of China’s fighter jets and other aircraft. In fact, China’s first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, was built in Ukraine.
“China has also co-operated with Ukraine over gas turbines in the Chinese Aegis destroyer, and the diesel engine for the Al-Khalid tank developed for Pakistan, according to Taiwan-based Want China Times.
“Kiev and Beijing were brought closer earlier this year by a security agreement. The treaty signed by President Xi Jinping and Yanukovych in January says Beijing will guarantee Ukraine security if the nation is under threat of a nuclear invasion.
“Economically, China has also been stepping up its trade with Ukraine. In December, Yanukovych said he had secured US$8 billion in Chinese investments for his ailing economy after talks with President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
“But Yang Cheng, the deputy director of the Centre for Russian Studies at East China Normal University in Shanghai, said the situation in Ukraine would remain chaotic no matter which power – the EU or Russia – Kiev ended up choosing.
“The change of government in Ukraine will definitely create uncertainty on whether the momentum for trade co-operation between Kiev and Beijing will remain as strong as it has been”, Yang said.”
Two thoughts:
1. In the UNSC (where admittedly Russia can stop anything it doesn’t like with the veto) China generally does not support interference in other countries internal affairs; so presumably Russia is prepared to discount Chinese support.
2. China very sensibly plays a watching game. If US/NATO/EU permits dismemberment of Ukraine because of arguments like reliance on Russian gas/too difficult to stop it/in Russia’s backyard/ it’s their historical patch etc etc what price in the long term Taiwan, let alone in the short term the senkoku islands (very thin end if a rvery big wedge) being the next red line we abandon?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force
The problem is how many of though aircraft are operational
Like there Su27 only 16 of the 40 odd are use able.
Every aircraft in there fleet is like that.
They have lost 39 of there MIG 29 as they ware at “Belbek” Sevastopol International Airport.
And 2 of there S-300 AAM units that were based in the Crimea.
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I would really hesitate to take anything from a source which uses the word “connexion”….
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‘Come now. What we really need is a brigade of infantry to face the Ruskies. How they would manage against professional troops after a decade or so fighting amateurs I don’t know.’
I don’t think we should write the Russians off that easily some of the units that have fought in Chechnya are not too bad.
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“I don’t think we should write the Russians off that easily some of the units that have fought in Chechnya are not too bad.”
I wrote it deliberately so it could be read both ways. Well done for doing the obvious.
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‘I wrote it deliberately so it could be read both ways’
I don’t understand what you mean?
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Just had a quick look at ARRSE’s thread on Ukraine, this from Grumblegrunt is interesting,
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/crimea-heating-up.210853/page-17#post-5611381
Whether it is Poles in Britain or II’s in the Mediterranean it does seem “freedom” for the liberated is nothing to do with love of country more about easing an escape to somewhere better.
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Not all of the Ukrainian navy has surrender
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy
Anything that was not on the Crimean peninsular is still in Ukrainian control There headquarters has had to move to Odessa.
Some of it looks like it is willing to fight. The Russians dispatched 3 anti submarine frigates last night. So it looks like the Ukrainian submarine Foxtrot class Zaporizhzhia (U-01) is out in the black sea and unaccounted for.
Ukrainian Marine at Feodosiya (on the Crimean peninsular) have refused to surrender so the Russians have blockaded there base.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Marine_Corps
The Ukrainian fleet is mostly old. It is also small so even if it was complete if would not stand much chance.
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I don’t understand what you mean?
We don’t have the fahcilities to take you all prisonah! Sorreh!
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@ Phil
I watched that last week, top film 🙂
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@as
Possibly or more likely there is at least one Turkish SSK out of Bartin keeping an eye on things and updating the NATO picture.
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Boss – According to Wiki there are over a million Russians in the Baltic States – around 25% of the populations of Latvia and Estonia, less than 5% of that of Lithuania….more than enough to justify an intervention if things can be helped to turn nasty at the appropriate moment…which they no doubt could.
Not much to add to various wise words on the hellish brew emerging in the Ukraine, beyond observing that although Ukrainian is a language with a people attached to it, as far as I know it was never exactly a Country bar a few years after the Revolution… it was more akin to the old Border Marches between England and Scotland than anything else…but with Cossacks giving allegiance to Poland, Russia, Lithuania, themselves or some combination of all of the above as convenient or profitable…over time I think the set-up was formalised as a Czarist Province with some sort of self-government under local Cossack Hetmen (I think that’s the term) – in return for providing vast numbers of Cossacks to fight RussIa’s Wars West, South and East…not to forget the Tartars sulking about the demise of the Golden Horde…likelihood of an agreed partition none to good in my view…
Whilst on the question of the Heirs to the Golden Horde, I notice the eastern branch in Tsinkiang have now started taking cleavers to the Han Chinese….
And amidst all these, Osborne is no doubt looking for another “peace” dividend in SDSR 2015.
Quite remarkably Gloomy
I also note that the
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On the subject of the Baltic states. there was quite a major Joint Force Command HQ NATO deployment exercise last year to the Baltic States with an interesting scenario. Just saying 🙂
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Wiki stats are what they are:
Estonia (themselves) classified about 40 % of population as non-Estonians at independence
Latvia had more
Obviously not many Russians (considering the economic state of Rodina at the time) had an urge to leave
… hence the statistics (“take cover” in operation)
BTW: the missing half of the Estonians went to Siberia… but they didn’t come back. Were replaced, just like the Crimea Tartars ; only a fraction of them came back (the Chechens made it, in remarkable numbers, despite having been deported, and let their thoughts known some time later)
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces
The Ukrainian army is large and well equipped. most of the equipment is relatively modern or at least has been modernised.
Does any one now if they are professional or conscripted? They do seem to of made the most of the training opportunities available to them. They have had exercises with both Russia and NATO.
Non of the Army are based in the Crimea so all of it is still in control of the central government.
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As touched upon by other writers it is not just the Ukraine that needs to be considered.
1. EU members Estonia and Lithuania have Russian majorities in certain areas. Putin would love to re-establish a direct link between Minsk and Kaliningrad. Already other states are having to provide air cover in this area. Immediately Nato/EU should station troops in these countries, plus provide a permanent air cap.
2. Look wider. China is watching this very carefuly. Many states around China have at least large chineese minoropities if not majority. Cause a little unrest politicaly and then step in to protect their ancesteral kin. So the west has to show some backbone. It would appear from reports that Germany has already blinked, which if they have is dissapointing but not unexpected as they really on Russian Gas so much. If we let Russia get away with this then China is on the march.
3. After abandoning the agreements with Georgia were this all started, if the west now walks away from the Budapest agreement with the Ukraine Japan will be getting very nervouse and demand more from the US.
So what to do.
Well we are not going to go to down town in Crimea. In reality Crimea is a lost cause. But eastern Ukraine isn’t. So immediately admitt Ukraine to the EU. Put together an aid package to secure Ukraines economy with Germany taking the main part of the cost of it since they are starting to back peddle already.
Secondly Russia is going to turn the gas off. So an emergency programme needs to be agreed with Norway, UEA, USA and other gulf states to ship LNG to Europe whilst europe starts fraking in a serious way to replace Russian gas. This dependancy needs to be broken.
Finally serious sanctions need to be taken. Since China seems to be onside with this you just ban as many Russian exports in as many countries as possible. Russia does truly really on raw material exports so cut that off and maybe Putin wakes up.
Then the west may get back some creadability. To achieve and maintain this the West next needs to start reversing the cuts in the armies. Germany in 1914 would not have invaded Belgium or France if Britain had increased its army to 200,000 starting in 1908 rather than being ignored in Germany as a contemtable little army. Learn from history and don’t make the same mistakes, maybe.
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@ Observer – I’m hurt – I have always preferred the grand old English “connexion” to the crass American “connection”!
@ACC – Well aware that wiki-stats can be dubious, but I think numbers of Russians have fallen in the face of considerable and often quasi-official hostility…
GNB
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With regards to gas from Russia, I believe the amount imported has fallen by half in the last few years. It’s now at 25% of EU total down from 50%.
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The Ginge,
That is simultaneously the most blinkered set of aggressive escalations and disastrously short-sighted and unworkable set of recommendations as I think it is possible to construe.
Do you really think it is sensitive to put together a package of German aid to the Ukraine, given the history, or that it is possible for the West to start fracking like a banshee at a day’s notice?
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@Ginge
NATO already provides the QRA for the Baltic states on a rolling basis. They even intercepted the Russians who were flying a simulated attack profile on Stockholm last year.
As for the US, a good friend of mine who I will describe as a senior figure in 6th Fleet had this to say and he will not mind me quoting him.
“I think the recent events boil down to this: are any of us really willing to die simply because we’d prefer to have a Ukraine flag flying over the Russian Naval Port in Sevastopol? If they push past Crimea and into Kiev, well that’s something different… but until then, its not worth losing lives over – neither ours nor theirs.”
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APATS,
You should worry about your American friend. Things will not boil down as he describes. Would that they did.
The greyer reality is that Putin cannot merely take Crimea, with a total of 1.9 million mostly Russian inhabitants. He has to take Eastern Ukraine as well, with ethnic Russians still a slight majority, if less concentrated than in the Crimea. Geo-spatially, Crimea is untenable for Russia without Eastern Ukraine. Politically, equally so as he cannot merely come to the rescue of 1.2 million Russian Crimeans and ignore 10 million Russians in Eastern Ukraine. Economically as the vast bulk of the heavy industry that supplies Southern Russia is in Eastern Ukraine and not in the Crimea.
But then in taking Eastern Ukraine, he’s suddenly also got 7 million Ukrainians who are not ethnic Russians. And a whole world against him, if sub-optimally.
Bit of a conundrum for him. And us.
Anyway, hopefully your friend has more intelligence than you credit him with. Him being senior and so on.
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@RT
I quoted him, did not say I agree with him. Whilst you might disagree with him it is a reflection of USA thinking at a fairly serious level as he is unlikely to go as “public” as he did with something that contradicts his boss.
He also inevitably has access to far better intel and picture, as well as insight into US contingency planning than I do and certainly than you do. He probably knows what Russian preps have happened and if those reports of them digging in at the Crimean neck are true.
Having said all that my gut sides with your interpretation.
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Should we all be preparing ourselves to the words ‘intelligence failure’ 🙂
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Outsource US intelligence to Sarah Palin. She appears to understand the situation far better than the supposed “pros” 🙂
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RT,
“Putin cannot merely take Crimea, with a total of 1.9 million mostly Russian inhabitants. He has to take Eastern Ukraine as well”
Why not?
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TD, I don’t necessarily think “intelligence failure”, because intelligence people would have been flagging up all sorts of possibilities for several weeks. What you might be seeing is political failure to act on intelligence.
That said, I had a daily intelligence feed at a fairly local level in Bosnia. Yes, there was UK national intelligence mixed in, but mostly it was a series of possibilities, which if you squeezed the balls of the SO2 Int you might get some probabilities from ( and he was a weird fish from Sunderland who no one either liked or trusted, and was often wrong, so you had to mix that in to your judgement).
Did you notice the collective “who could possibly have known Saddam’s intent?” From the J2 community in Gulf 1? Every fucker apart from J2 knew that he was going to invade Kuwait about 4 days beforehand. They were not geared up for it, is all. If there is another “intelligence failure”, the same excuse will be trotted out.
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Because Simon he cannot feed and supply 1.9 million people across Ukrainian territory forever, especially as there still is not a bridge from Kerch to Russia proper.
Did you bang your head on the way in, and being concussed, ask a stupid question?
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RT,
We seem to manage to feed 60+ million and we’ve got further to go across the channel.
Have you forgotten about floaty little boats 😉
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@RT
Have you looked at the statistics for Agriculture in Crimea? It employs 20% of the population and also has some deep water ports. By your argument all Islands would be doomed.
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As I said earlier the Russians are use to operating areas that are isolated. Kaliningrad Oblast is only accessible by air with road and rail having to pass through ether Poland and Lithuania. so it is possible with no land link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast
It has a population of about 1 million people.
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Commercial shipping depends on a state of peace.
Crimea has no oil and gas supplies of its’ own.
APATS, try growing crops on a commercial basis with no fuel.
Everyone, look at a map. Crimea cannot be adequately supplied from Russia. Bulk stuffs all go through Eastern Ukraine.
That’s why we are only seeing Scene One. Scene Two is Eastern Ukraine, or Putin backing down. Place your bets.
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@RT: gosh, the lights will be out tomorrow. After all, the majority of our gas arrives via sea 🙂
I think Putin wants the Eastern Ukraine purely on the basis that’s what he thinks he can get.
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@RT
You also suppose a land blockade, plenty of areas import fuel and with Russia they have a ready supply.
I have looked at a map and even in the unlikely instance of a total Ukrainian blockade it is workable and that is unlikely to happen.
I appreciate you think in one environment but ships carry lots more than trains and a 2 mile gap is hardly a gap at all.
@as makes a very good point, compared to the Kaliningrad Oblast, Crimea would be pretty simple. Politically the Ukraine would accept Crimea to save eastern Ukraine and once you remove any potential blockade life is very simple. May happen, may not but it is definitely logistically possible.
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Dear All,
Thanks for the comments, yep maybe saying German money was wrong EU money. Secondly my whole point is we have too draw lines somewhere and maybe suffer a little pain now is better than a lot of pain when Russia invades Lithuania or China invades Taiwan and we can’t shrug our shoulders. Actions must have consequences too many times Syria, Georgia, Scarborough Scholes etc etc the west has shrugged collectively it’s shoulders and done nothing. Thus Putin looked at the Crimea and went I can do anything I want as the USA and EU will say harsh words and do nothing.
Again I never said send any form of military personel east but economic sanctions with the support of China will hurt Putin hard and maybe make him think. I even disagree with the Nato’s chiefs idea of “observers” as one will be captured and paraded in Moscow as evidence of Western spies.
But by helping the Ukraine economicaly and admitting to EU you might make Putin think as I believe by this time next week eastern Ukraine will be Russian and the question is will they stop there ?
And yes I know that Nato provide a QRA force in the eastern Baltic but it is subject to review and renewal every 6mths (I am sure somebody will correct me if I’m wrong on that timing). Lets make it permanent and better equiped, maybe some ground forces as another trip wire. Again to make Putin think “can I get away with this ”
All this is designed to show China when we say something or sign a treaty we mean it, without firing one missile or bullet or sending any troops or planes east to confront Russian troops at all.
So I am suggesting zero military responce in Ukrane but an economic and political responce that show agression has consequences.
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Wf. I don’t think there is any correlation between UK gas and gas supply into Crimea. Their’s comes overland over what is still Ukrainian territory. Our’s comes mostly from LNG from Qatar and pipeline from Norway, a bit from the North Sea.
APATS, if there is no seizure by Russia of Eastern Ukraine, do you suppose that the Ukrainians will be in any mood to allow Crimea to simply carry on as before with all of their stuff coming unmolested over Ukrainian territory? You might, but I suspect that the first thing vengeful Ukrainians will do is to put their boot on the neck of Crimea and start jumping up and down on it very hard.
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@RT
Depends whether they want yo keep their own lights on because their gas does come from Russia. Combine this with some “wise words” from the West and yes I think a Russian controlled Crimea looks a good out option for the Ukraine.
Also as I have said deep water ports and a piffling 2 mile gap offer an easy alternative so the Ukraine would have 2 choices.
1. Keep the lights on in Ukraine and make money on Russian goods transiting to the Crimea or.
2. Have their gas cut off and make no money as Russia demonstrates that a 2 mile water gap and deep water ports are more efficient in any case whilst formentinh further resentment and conflict.
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Putin would turn the gas off. They are dependent on each other.
We are heading for partition. And then an adjustment of populations.
The Germans are already making moves to placate the Russians.
BTW the ferries cross the straits every 1.5 hours.
As I said this all due to how rapidly the USSR collapsed. If they had thought it out the Russians would have taken the Crimea back before the USSR disappeared.
This was bound to happen.
I can see this hastening the end of NATO as we know it and, even with its inherent impotence, the rise of a German centre EU defence grouping that isn’t hostile to Russia but, um, actively neutral. No way will the Germans allow troops to move from Germany into Poland and into the Ukraine. If there is no permissible route and with RUssia have know interest in moving west (if it ever did) then NATO’s purpose is null.
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Um. The idea of neutral Germany at the heart of Europe has been floated before.
Quite like the idea of a central European block built around Germany free from the Latin triad and perhaps with a neutral Scandinavian block.
Where that would leave us I don’t know? Look west to the sea again?
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Operation Pluto lay a pipeline under the channel 90 mile long for D-Day so a three mile gap is no problem with modern technology. The Ferry port on that side of the peninsular has three railway ferries so has the ability to carry a large amount of cargo fairly swiftly. The two ports also have good road links.
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APATS,
2 mile gap, which will take at least 6 months to build a decent bridge, and several years to re-route gas pipes to. Especially when you look further afield to discover that it’s a hell of a long diversion for road supplies, and much of the road route class 30.
Who is going to whine first?
Or put another way, if your diversion was such a good idea, why is it not already in place? It is not.
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@x: I imagine Putin is trying to produce a fait accompli. In Europe, I expect that one of those and a couple of quid will buy you a coffee. Other rules may apply elsewhere, but you could try asking Israel how good boots on the ground are at manufacturing “legitimacy”. A referendum, be it ever so scrupulously fair, isn’t going to be accepted after an invasion. And not just in Europe. Russian crusaders, stealing yet more of the Dar-al-Islam? Oh, dear!
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I think when the Crimea was moved to the Ukraine in 1954, whatever, I don’t think they were thinking about the USSR coming to grief.
I don’t think Moscow thought the Ukrainians would get uppity.
That’s why there is no link. Somebody made a mistake.
We should be more worried about what the Ukranians think they are going to get out of Europe, sorry I mean the EU. The Ukrainian is like Greece on steroids.
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@ Angus
Russian boots on ground where Russians are in the majority and have been in the majority for a long time is a different matter from Israelis in the West Bank or Gaza.
Europe and referendum and legitimacy…….. there are three words with which to conjure.
As I said partition, then population adjustment, and then business as usual.
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“ Unending union of Great Republics,
Created in the great embrace of Mother Russia”
Just thought I’d replay the first two lines of the Russian National Anthem. My Russian is a bit rusty now, it being 25 years since I last had need of it*, and the official lyrics bouncing about a bit.
Slightly worrying, given that unlike our National Anthem, they completely and literally believe it.
Still, tells a tale of how they see themselves. A bit menacing if you are a Republic.
* a total put down by Comd GSFG’s personal assistant, who was a complete pro and unlikely to be swayed by a British officer. However, in Croatia, I did manage to play the useful fool and report back to the FCO on what Gen Perelyakin was telling his commanders who did not realise that I could understand what they were discussing.
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@X
Might be going off topic a bit here but until 180 years ago the Holy Land was sparsely populated with more Jews in Jerusalem that Muslims – Christians outnumbered both. A British artist who I forget painted a picture of the Old City of Jerusalem in early 1800s with no surrounding suburbs we see today.
The great influx of Arabs to modern Palestine started under the British Mandate, and slightly before, in response to an increasing migration of Jews and the prosperity brought by British rule post-1917.
In 1948 then again in 1967 Jordon attacked Israel and if we are to use the example applied to Germany of being an aggressor, legitimately lost territory i.e. the West Bank.
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@Steve – Off-topic, but interesting nonetheless; I’m always astonished…bearing in mind how vile and barbarous the British Empire and British Rule allegedly was…the numbers of people who actively moved into it when it was available, and then moved about freely and made prosperous lives for themselves all over the show…and indeed the numbers of people who couldn’t see the back of us soon enough in the fifties and sixties, but now seem so determined to put themselves under British Rule again by moving heaven and earth to join us in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
We must suddenly have got much to be much better people in a much better ruled place…perhaps one of our leftward leaning commentators might care to explain it to nostalgic old dinosaurs like me?
GNB
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Putin can turn off the gas, but he can’t turn it off to Ukraine without turning it off to the whole of Europe, which also means turning off the money (and imports) to Russia. If you push the gas you intend to export into the pipes, you can’t stop the Ukrainians using it. Either way, the spice must flow, and as such the transit pricing has to reflect both Russian and Ukrainian interests.
The issue is as painful as it is because it suits the elite on both sides to maintain a conflict that permits them to profit from being the people who solve it.
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@Alex: unfortunately, Russia has been busily bypassing the Ukraine for years. See the already in service Nord Stream and the building South Stream.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
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@GNB,
Can’t heed the call, but just a thought, something to do with the attitudes:
– when the Brits took over in India, the GNP there was above the one on these islands
– then it was the other way . For a long time
– now Cameron is frequently making these ” can we be friends visits” because of … The zig-zagging GNP trends.
Btw: the Moscow fruit and veg markets were taken over by Chechens well before the hostilities, not for their love of the Russians, but because of intervening opportunity ( too many obstavles to migrating properly)
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@wf
As much of Russia’s gas originates from fairly up North, building that particular pipeline can hardly be attributed to the motivation of bypassing Ukraine.
– what is Southstream? I must have fallen behind (while opNorth)
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Are the French still building the mistral vessels for Russia?
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@ACC: after the contretemps in 2009, why assume the Russians really wanted to spend 10 billion quid plus on more pipelines?
They had two ones to Germany already, and maintaining a subsea pipeline is a lot more expensive than ground one.
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Don’t know about that part of the deal, but the Russians gave up on the part of the deal that inviolved tech transfer for building locally
… There have been a lot of angry words about the lateness of building their own designs – with building, not design, underlined
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OT, but on that note:
Why is everyone now wishing shitloads of Mistrals for the RN, whereas before I took my sabbatical the JC design was the one to have?
Has something changed,or it just wore out?
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seems the Chinese are backing the Russians, does anyone think this is a dangerous president for Russia. There are a lot of unruly Chinese living inside the Russian border, very far from Moscow and very close to a large amount of minerals and oil.
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@wf
I can see the political motivation with Yamal2 (is it operating?).
Secession areas have a strong role to play, looking at the wikipedia map:
Southstream crossing E. Ukraine and flanked by Abhasia (not even on the map, at least they had the good sense to part with Georgia).
The Karelians had even more foresight: they jumped ship to Russia, with Vyborg, to make Northstream viable.
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@ACC: both Abkhazia (originally 60% Georgian in population) and Karelia (mostly Finnish) were affectively Russian conquests. Their “good sense” sounds a bit like the old Soviet propaganda about the likes of the Baltics. Have we found a Putin stooge on Think Defence? I’ll start testing my tea for polonium right away!
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Steve said “Might be going off topic a bit here but until 180 years ago the Holy Land was sparsely populated with more Jews in Jerusalem that Muslims – Christians outnumbered both. A British artist who I forget painted a picture of the Old City of Jerusalem in early 1800s with no surrounding suburbs we see today.”
Thank you I know. My reference to Israelis was more to do with who is on the ground now and the actual. to my mind, the simplicity of the Crimea situation. Whether the Arabs were there or not 180 years ago they are there today and were there in 1948. Whatever you believe it makes the situation a tiny bit more complicated.
I am no promulgator of the Palestinian Myth, the Gaza Myth, the Apartheid Israel Myth, Israel Land Grabbing Myth, Pallywood, Hezbollalalalalala propaganda, and any other mendacious codswallop that is pushed by the Left.
As for Jerusalem enough I know a bit about the development of the city too. Once i attended a very good lecture on the place. Oddly in size and shape it is about the size of my town.
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Putin has one. Whether he goes for the rest of Eastern Ukraine, we will have to wait and see. But if the country defaults and suffers an economic collapse, anything is possible! The EU should start to prepare for a possible huge refugee crisis.
On the Crimea itself, Mr Putin has won. Anyone can see that this has Operation been planned for a long time. He was just biding his time, waiting for the right moment.
Western politicians and media, have long dismissed Russia as a has-been. Well we have a country that can shut down the EU, China, India, by simply turning off the Gas. And for all the blustering their is nothing we can do about that. And their is nothing we can do about this situation either!
In the White House, we have a weak indecisive President who is indifferent to the world. The UK itself, whether Militarily or Politically has become weak. Let face it, we can’t even get the EU to talk about Reforms in any shape or form. The fact that we may lose a couple of million separatist’s ourselves come September doesn’t help. Hell we can’t even stop the Spanish buggering about in Gibraltar!
All we can do is make empty threats and gestures. Putin sees the West as Weak, Powerless and worse of all Leaderless. And you know he is right! Does anyone see strong Western leaders like Mrs Thatcher or Ronald Reagan emerging from the horizon! No neither can I.
China, will take two things from this.
One: Don’t mess with Putin or Russia, it’s no longer a Paper Tiger.
Two: with Obama in power you can do what you like.
If you are the Philippines, the Spratleys Islands probably wont be yours for much longer!
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@Simon257: I’d agree with most of that, but Putin cannot cut everyone off from the gas. He’d have no money (well, the Russian Federation wouldn’t, I’m sure he’d still have plenty). Yes, there’s exports to China and India via LNG, but the majority of the money comes from Europe. The Nord Stream allows Putin to split off at least Germany from the rest of the EU when it comes to blackmailing everyone else.
Frack baby, frack. And build those US LNG terminals.
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I’ll try irony again (who was it that just said it is difficult here!).
PS Just invested in fracking… pls do (front running is only illegal in the US)
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@ Simon 257
I’m not so sure. I think time will tell but Putin may have bitten off more Than he can chew? Oil prices and gas prices were already heading for a big fall and the Russian economy looks weak. Many of his biggest gas markets have been diversifying away for several years and are likely to be quietly increasing that process soon. sanctions by the EU and the USA can have a devastating effect on Russia. Its economic leverage that we never had during the Cold War.
Its the in thing to call the UK weak and has been for the last 150 years but look what happened to Iran when cut off from the Lloyd’s insurance market. even Russian arms shipments to Syria have been turned around by removing their insurance.
That being said I agree about western leadership. Ours is particularly bad prepared to bend over at a moments notice for a a bit of Chinese cash for reactors or a few skyscrapers in London . as if countries and soverign wealth funds were not already falling over the selves to invest in the UK.
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I’m not saying he would stop supplying everyone. He just has the power to do so. Gas and Oil supplies are a new weapon! In which we are powerless really. He doesn’t need a vast army or hundreds of ICBM’s. He can make life extremely hard for a lot of countries by just reducing the pressure on the Gas pipelines!
These two link are a couple of years old. The first one is about the most important pipelines in the world. The second link from 2010 shows Russian pipelines built, being built or planned.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-15-oil-and-gas-pipelines-changing-the-worlds-strategic-map-2010-3?op=1
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456974/html/nn4page1.stm
We have to start to Frack and also start to seriously look for Oil and Gas Reserves not just off the Falklands, but Ascension and St Helena and dare I say it, South Georgia. Also we should start to seriously reconsider our policy of closing Coal Fired Power Stations and revitalise the Coal Mining industry.
If this drags on through the summer and into the Autumn, you can bet your last pound that he will reduce the amount of Gas, that flows into Europe! Then we will see who blinks first!
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Simon, as someone on the receiving end of supply stoppage threats and actual shortages before, I can tell you one very sure thing. Once you cut a supply, your customers are never coming back. They’ll find an alternate source and you are out a revenue source and up shit creek. No one is going to trust you for at least 2 generations. So I don’t think they’ll really cut supply. Threaten, maybe, and even that is risky if people start diversifying and reducing dependence on you.
Not a card to play lightly.
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Hi Simon257,
How times change! A year ago the world was hinging on those pipelines that help to bypass the Strait of Hormuz
– now your first source had none (!) of them in the Top 15?
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Observer
Fortunately, the UK, does not get its supply of Gas from Russia. We get ours from the UK’s own supplies, Norway and Qatar. Europe on the other hand doesn’t. It would take years to build either enough LNG ships, port facilities or pipelines bypassing Russia. He has Europe by the Balls.
What if he now turns his attention to Uzbekistan, or the other nations around the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. Bring them under his sphere of influence and create a new Russian Empire Power Bloc.
Unfortunately, this sadly looks like the situation Czechoslovakia faced in 1938! The outcome will be the same I’m afraid! He is just using Salami Slicing Tactics. Today Crimea, Eastern Ukraine by the end of the year! Where next take your pick!
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Simon, why stop at Earth? Next year, Pluto!!
If Putin goes nuts, then the LNG tankers from Hormuz turn West instead of East. Nothing says that you need pipes for gas, hell, my kitchen hob runs on “bottled” gas, and Euros spend as well as Renminbi. China will probably make up the shortfall by buying gas from Russia through their eastern pipelines.
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Some confusion on the Beeb website: apparently an ultimatum issues by Russia requiring the Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 0300 GMT tomorrow or face immediate attack. Later sources in Moscow denying this.
Fog of war, or real? We might know tomorrow, but even if true, they might delay so that after a few days we all think it was a bluff. Or go early…
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@Mark – Yes, two being built with option for two more. Supposedly based in Vladivostok.
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Observer
In 2008 it was South Ossetia, today it is Crimea. He’s just waiting for the Ukrainians to react to provocation. And he will have the excuse to take the rest of Eastern Ukraine. And nothing can or will be done to stop him. He will just veto any UN action in any case!
I wouldn’t put it past him to have a go at Pluto either!
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RE “looks like the situation Czechoslovakia faced in 1938! The outcome will be the same”
Errm… 1968
One was splitting away fro the closed ranks
An overkill response was applied
All the supporters for the regime, the few they had on the outside, turned away and steered their own course from then on
Then the rest of the house of cards started to fall… the end, over two decades later
There are not many left in the close circle of friends. After Ukraine, a non-meaningful strip of Moldova, and Belorussia. Those stans of the ex-USSR ilk that still lean towards Putin do so more to have someone’s support for their own authoritarian regimes than for any other reason (Kazakhstan busily opening pipelines straight into China).
It is a pity that the West has been pushing the agenda that looks (underlined) like encirclement (the historic fear of Russia, despite their vast land mass)… a wounded bear is dangerous
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Thanks WiseApe maybe we could replace the amphib fleet by helping out with a fire sale buy
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RT,
They had that same bluff and same deadline already earlier.
Thank God Ukraine does not have conscripts in there… someone would have panicked already and pulled the tricker.
Now we just wait for more of the 30’s to replay:
Ethiopia attacked Italy
Manchuria (China) attacked Japan (their part of Manchuria)
Finland shelled the USSR
and so on
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@Observer: Europe has already been through a constriction in supply in 2009. They still seem to be buying the gas from the Russians because they don’t want to face the consequences.
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However we look at it, these events do push the need for…energy security (including a big dose of nuclear and fracking, and a long hard look at clean coal technology)…a systematic diversification of the economy (so we can use the levers in the City without fear of bankruptcy)…and a slow but steady re-armament as discussed elsewhere (so we have options beyond “hand-wringing” and “wailing for the Cousins”)…much further up the national agenda.
Or rather more accurately they should, but probably won’t…
Remorselessly and increasingly Gloomy
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A civil servant attending a Downing Street meeting this afternoon was carrying a document setting out various options for Ministerial discussion. It was photographed in his hand.
Cockup, or maskirovka-style conspiracy? If the former, why the effing hell does this happen again and again? I know we are undergoing austerity, but surely the civil service can afford plain manilla covers, if not an actual briefcase?
If it was a cockup, perhaps stripping the civil servant of his job, pension and liberty with a full Monty breach of the Official Secrets Act custodial charge might concentrate the minds of the other muppets in the civil service.
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@RT – “We prefer to speak softly and carry a big stick.” – Minus the big stick, obviously.
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WiseApe,
There have been times (many times) in both uniformed public service, and later the private sector sealing with defence or public security matters, when I could have sworn that the civil service in the MoD deliberately recruited mulishly stupid school dropouts, Bolshy jobsworths, clock watchers, or people with a political agenda designed to frustrate the government of the day.
They certainly don’t appear to be actually helpful, despite assurances that they want to be.
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@Mark a little ways upthread,
Perfect. Just like HMS Agincourt (1913 flavour.) Change the planned sensor and weapons fits on each vessel. La Royale get their fourth BPC, RN gets an Ocean replacement (that takes over 100 fewer core crew to run, even if you want to man robustly you’ve still got seed corn slots towards reactivating the second LPD or manning two carriers, dealer’s choice.
@RT,
There is a third possibility, although I suppose it could partly be covered under the heading “internal maskirovka”: a leak. Not a cock up but a deliberate leak by the civil servant or an even more senior permanent or political figure. You read the recap of contents, right? Wag fingers, tear up some visas to look butch, but for God’s sake keep fellating the oligarchs because there’s an election next year and The City Your God Is a Jealous God. Could’ve been written by Lord Halifax in the fetal position, which is an excellent description of George Osborne anyway. The fucking government should fall. Of course, if it were Labour (wholly owned subsidiary of RBS and HSBC as it is) or the Glib Dems, the song would be the same. Britain was a fashion leader, but over the last thirty to forty years the West in General has slouched into a modern feudalism, run by and for rentiers with nations degrades, their laws flouted or bought, industrialists neutered, national resources outsourced, workers ground under, small investors played for chumps and reduced to peons. And this is what one gets in return (“Europe” is the grand regional example, using the Eurocrats as useful idiots to build a new Holy Roman Electorate of gentleman-bankers, some of whom even have pedigrees back to titled houses, using the regional economies as both tithe to themselves and pyramid scheme.)
/rant over
I suspect the only government of real national unity we could see cobbled together would be bits of Ukip (not all, because parts are in the American parlance “AstroTurf” — phony grassroots, it’s a surprisingly good pun — for the Square Mile) and the Greens. Feh.
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There are certain elements within the US/UK and European power structures who would love to see Uncle Vladimir become embroiled in the Ukraine. It would be a disaster for him and also the Russian economy, combined with sanctions and the Oligarchs may decide its time for him to step down.
Sacrificing the Ukraine to see Putin go is a small strategic price for the West to pay.
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not many of those in germany, tim.
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ACC
The reason, I used Czechoslovakia in 1938, rather than what happened to it in 1968. Was for the simple reason it was a Warsaw Pact invasion in 1968.
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If I read one more comment elsewhere that goes along the lines of “Russian aggression, blah, blah, blah, Warsaw tomorrow, blah, blah” I will vomit.
I admit I laughed when Tim Marshall hat tipped this bunfight, but come on………….
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Another thought or two,
1) I wonder how long the plans for this have been extant?
2) I am sorry to say this but for all the hoohaa about “Russian Aggression” I am beginning to feel a begrudging admiration for Putin. Or is it that our politicians are just a bunch of opportunistic treasonous vacillating invertebrates with little or no pride or intellectual capacity and any alternative looks good?
3) The West is the new socialist paradise.
PS: One more thing. The flag of the Kuban Cossacks is a bit, well, gay (new vernacular). Sorry guys. Take heart I think some Household regiments and some cavalry regiments like pink so you are in good company……….
3)
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Lets say it costs us £xBn to win the fight with Russia using conventional means then surely we would be better off competing economically. Those same £xBn could be invested in alternative power and fuel sources. I’m sure this would hit Russia much harder.
We could give free bus passes and TV licences to the oligarchs too, You know to tempt them away from Moscow and the Russian way of doing things. The VAT on the restaurant bills would more than cover it.
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@ Opinion 3
Have you ever thought that is all this isn’t about power plays and money? It could simply be Russians looking after Russians? In some ways could we say this Crimean affair is like the Falklands?
Is it better to be rich, dumb, and in slavery or poor, intellectually free, and free?
Another thing I have noticed reading the comments elsewhere on this affair is that there is a discernible subtext in many of them showing a disconnect between a sense of nationhood or belonging to a people. If you have suffered the UK education in recent decades you will know there is a real hatred of the nation state within the ranks of educationalists. And I think I am seeing the fruits of their labours now. Oddly that is why the EU is destined to fail; socialism has discredited allegiance to a flag to such an extent that presented with a new we don’t care. Then again do they care that we don’t care as long as they get to exercise power?
PS: I sat through the opening to the Winter Games. Are all Olympic opening ceremonies like that? Wow! Not so much the spectacle but the anthems, oath taking etc. All it needed was a few rousing choruses of Deutschland, Deutschland über alles and some flaming torches….wait one….there were flaming torches!!!!!!!!!!1
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X
Tim Marshall wasn’t wrong though, was he!
You are right on Putin though, you have to respect him. I don’t know, why but he reminds me of Terry Patchetts Lord Vetinari!
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@Jackstaff
‘Perfect. Just like HMS Agincourt (1913 flavour.) Change the planned sensor and weapons fits on each vessel. La Royale get their fourth BPC, RN gets an Ocean replacement (that takes over 100 fewer core crew to run, even if you want to man robustly you’ve still got seed corn slots towards reactivating the second LPD or manning two carriers, dealer’s choice’
Sounds good to me!
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@X
I don’t disagree with what you say there. Putin is smart, fast and quite often ruthless. I also happen to believe he is a corrupt thug but not being Russian, and having been supported by so many Russians in a (altough possibly corrupt and cheated?) democratic election makes me hold my horses.
He is only doing what we would have done, however my point is more that indignation cannot result in military pressure or economic pressure unless we are going to win. Europe is so dependent on Russia oil, gas and coal that we need to implement a strategy that frees us from this.
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The Falkland’s comparison by x is quite apt.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the revised military doctrine got the explicit addition of proteting Russians also outside the borders. Taking the matter to the Duma was for demonstration effect, but incluxing all of Ukraine from the outset was quiite sinister, considering that other than the Crimea has not been a dispute for decades.
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Information war will have a post-mortem:
Do two tug-like coast guard boats within the Sebastobol naval base area equate to all Ukrainian garrisons on Crimea?
Anyway, the Americans themselves say that the CIA has put the volume of intelligence above interpetation, and have not been able to provide a good steer for decision making and consultations.
The ones who do understand the thinking of Russian leadershnip operate on the Moscow exchange – the nose dive there (and that of the currency) is over. If it resumes, then all the hell is likely to break loose.
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Britain could get 15% of its gas from renewable sources (sewage works/cattle farms/composting/landfill sites). In 2010 the coalition said it would back this, but I have not heard of any action. The best way to get back at Putin, is to make the UK more energy independent.
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Sky News are reporting that Poland and Lithuania have asked for another NATO meeting, both are putting forward Article 4 of the NATO Treaty as the reason for the meeting.
Also Gazprom have announced the end of Ukraines Gas Discount from April.
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Simon
Lord Vetinari would eat Putin and every politician in the west for breakfast.
He would have invaded Ukraine with Ukrainians!
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Interesting Press conference with Putin. No one asking him nay hard questions yet.
Also interesting comments from Merkel saying that Putin is out of touch with reality. Did not expect that from the Germans especially after their foreign minister originally came out against suspending Russia from the G8.
Interesting bit from RT news here. The news caster went off the Kremlin message.
Brave girl, lest just hope she gets a job on a real news network.
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Al Jazeera also has a charter of indepenxent newscasting, and when the team was doing too much of it, they got cleared out en masse.
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I originally put my comment in the open thread, regarding Antonov, which I was surprised to find out is Ukranian not Russian. I’m wondering how long it will be before the Russian Air Force starts feeling the pinch from the lack of spare parts for its strategic and tactical lift capability? Looks like they will have top rely solely on the Ilyushin-76 for just about everything if the long term forecast goes bad.
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If I were Abby Martin, I’d be drinking my tea out of a flask which I had prepared myself.
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How is Putin corrupt? There was a grab for the USSR’s assets and the ruthless came to the top in short order. But how are they any more or less corrupt than some of our savvy entrepreneurs? How many of you watch that programme with Alan “Barrow Boy” Sugar? Russians like autocracy. They swapped a monarchy for a one party state for a technocrat-run-kleptocracy.
If Crimea was full of Ukrainians then it would be a different matter. We have the EU who wanted to do nothing but redraw the map of Europe crying foul. We have the US who invade states at the drop of a hat calling foul. The unelected Ukrainian interim government who came to power through violence which brought about the deaths of fellow Ukrainians calling foul. I don’t think the Russians have killed anybody yet.
What I think has disturbed the West’s body politic is the sheer honesty of the move. We have Obama bagging on about history etc. Yet he rules by decree (executive orders have a dubious basis within US law) , his administration is fighting a war from above in Pakistan (drone deaths have increased under his watch), his presides over a surveillance state, and he would love nothing to more than disarm the American people while championing the cause of malcontents in a country far, far away who took on their government with curb stones and helves. If one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter then similar surely can be said about the mob in the street?
We live in contrary times.
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddavenport/2014/02/24/obamas-executive-power-pen-is-already-worn-out/
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@ WiseApe – according to BBC R4 they are sending the intrepid young woman to “see for herself” in the Crimea…we’d best get up a whip round for a flack-jacket and a trustworthy close protection team..!
GNB
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Risk of showers in Crimea? Avoid all umbrellas.
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Well having had a view down this blog and having looked at Sky, Telegraph, Guardian websites either we have a very good Russian propaganda campaign or quite simply I don’t live in the country I thought I did.
To read comments that are seriously supporting Mr Putin’s position, the British Government ducking for cover to do nothing at all and allow a meglamaniac be unpunished. To not bat an eyelid at Russian soldiers (confirmed by some of them on camera) breaching the Geneva Convention not wearing insignia or regimental identifiers or country insignia so they can not be identified and if any illigal acts occurr can only be prosecuted under what Ukrainian Law or Russian (if Crimea now Russian) but could not be identified or taken to the ICC for trial.
And this is a nation we should just let walk in to a Region agreed by Russia to be Ukrainian, a treaty signed by the UK, France, and USA.
All we need to see is a man comming of a plane stating he has talked to Mr Putin and has peace in our time.
Non wonder Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have asked for a Nato meeting under Section 4 ( which has only been used when shots have been fired at a Nato member) they have in living memory been shafted by the west running in the other direction. This is Yugoslavia again Europe sticking their head in the sand untill 100,000 die.
All I can say for those making these comments is shame, and all those who died to say never again we make the same mistake.
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Remember the Ukrainian Cossacks and Churchill? History will repeat it self .
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Wow! Even Sky gone over to the Russian side?
It would be good to understand when one is taken for a ride.
@ginge, in case you have not read the related comments on the Open Thread:
– Russia gets what it wants
– USA comes out looking good
– EU picks up the bill.
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NATO-Russia Council meeting today.
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Wow a -3……..
I do hope those -1’s are from regulars here whose opinions I respect even if I don’t agree with them and not cowardly lurkers.
The only mitigation I can off the court is that when I used to write about imperialism and security fulltime I used to get very good marks. Which considering my political outlook is quite a feat considering how academia here is dominated by intellectual pygmies spouting left wing bigotry…..
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Somebody on the Sky New’s webpage has commented that perhaps we should all start to learn Russian. Good grief.
I am concerned how many Americans are more concerned that their country is impotent in the situation more than the rights and wrongs of the situation. One YouTube channel I have just watched has suggested that her viewers go prepare for the fall of civilization; then again that is extreme preppers for you. I think what is with the Americans is that Syria was a smack in the face and the situation in Ukraine has just confirmed their lack of agency. I was always taught hit somebody three times; once to shock them, two so they know they have been hit, and thirdly so they know you are going to back up your threat. It is the third hit to US confidence I am worrying about now. I am taking evens on China in the South China Sea vs Japan and the Philippines…
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Hi x, don’t pay any attention tothose minuses.
But here you arewrong. The British Parliament let Obama out, even though he had been dibbing justdeeper.
Now their posturing ismuchmore clever: we walk off with theglory (and the gratitude of the people involved), and we let someone else clean up/ pay for themess.
Do hou think Romania and Bulgaria would be in the EU now, had itnoT beenfor the insistence that everyona who has turned their backs to Communism should be rewarded? Even if the rewards go to themafia intermingled with thestate, n ot to the people.
It will besofunny ( not!) Watching the EU shovelling all tbose billions to Ukraine, half of it going immediately to Putin (through the revised energy bill) and the other half to the local mafia,intertwined closely withboth thelocal eliteand theRussianmafia).
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@ ACC
I don’t mind the minuses. Most of what I write here is me thinking aloud. What I actually think or believe may not ever get recorded here.
Some of the keywords in your comment have surcombed to the speed of your typing. I thank you for trying to get something bashed out.
As the moment I am caught between opinion pieces on the net written by journalists, both Ukrainian and Western (from outside the country), saying one thing. And the other side pictures of very ordinary looking Russian Ukrainians (as opposed to Russian speaking Ukrainians) protesting in the east. Though on the fringes of these protests can be seen some dubious looking characters (shades of protests in NI) it isn’t the pro-Russia who are being bussed away from town centres for protection.
I note Turkey had opened the straits to the USN. We won’t mention 1974 shall we guys?
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ACC said “Do you think Romania and Bulgaria would be in the EU now, had it not been for the insistence that everyone who has turned their backs to Communism should be rewarded? Even if the rewards go to the mafia intermingled with the state, not to the people.” 🙂
Very, very true. The right to self-determination as long as it you want to join the EU. This old style power vs modern soft power. There is tension between realism and global liberalism because neither model quite explains how the world works. I think trade (and “culture”) helps to prevent wars but it isn’t a panacea to the world ills. Mainly because the market isn’t truly open it is a hybrid mercantilist characteristics too and that feeds back into realism. Not for nothing are the Chinese superstitiously getting states to dump the dollar. If this was 1995 would the Europe part of NATO be sitting on the Polish Ukrainian border now? Probably not. That is why Putin’s moves, however many flaws we can point out in them, are brilliant. I commented here a while back that as military force continues to use utility (if its utility was as great as we thought it was) would it actually make it more accessible as tool of statecraft. I forget who poured scorn on my musings in a rather caustic way but he we are seeing what I talked about in action. Um. I don’t think we are on the cusp of WW3. Yes the Russians have gone further than the Soviets threatened to do in Poland in the early 80s. Interesting to speculate and muse on what if anything the Germans and Poles could do acting outside NATO or even the EU. Would a move into the West Ukraine start a shooting war would the Russians go on an offencive I don’t think so? I think if the G&P did act militarily (that is moving to protect Kiev and the Western states) it would be to put a stamp on partition which is the Russian’s ultimate goal I believe. Even sitting on the Polish border would do that. The Germans are dependent on Russian gas, the German military is tiny, and all that means German has no options. I think the Russians are playing the long game. We shall see.
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Dr Henry Kissinger says……..
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html
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